FOREX-Dollar hits 7-week low as safe-haven demand wanes`

MARKETS-FOREX (UPDATE 8):FOREX-Dollar hits 7-week low as safe-haven demand wanes.

* U.S. new-home sales rise sharply in June

* Euro at 7-week high against dollar

* Canadian dollar at 10-month high vs USD (Adds quotes, updates prices, adds detail)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than seven weeks against a basket of currencies Monday as optimism about the global economy dulled the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

A government report showing a jump in U.S. new-home sales last month encouraged investors to take on risk and pushed the yen to multi-week lows versus the dollar and euro. Both the U.S. and Japanese currencies tend to fall when risk appetite improves.

The dollar has come under pressure in recent sessions as upbeat economic data and largely positive results on the U.S. corporate earnings front fueled expectations that the global economy was on the mend.

"Though the housing market remains weak compared to the peaks, the improved data will continue to feed into market optimism on green shoots," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"We had very strong gains last week in equity markets on general optimism," he added. "At this stage, the dollar remains vulnerable to good economic news and so the soft dollar tone is likely to continue."

The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, a measure of the dollar's performance against six major currencies, fell to its lowest level since early June, at 78.396.

The euro was also buoyed by data showing German consumer sentiment at its highest level in over a year . The single currency last traded up 0.1 percent at $1.4217, after hitting $1.4299, a more than seven-week high and not far off its 2009 peak of $1.4337 hit in early June, according to Reuters data.

Against the yen, the euro also hit its highest level in more than three weeks at 136.09 yen, and last traded up 0.7 percent at 135.49 yen.

The dollar was up 0.5 percent at 95.28 yen , after hitting a session peak of 95.38 yen, the highest level in almost three weeks.

INVESTOR WARY REMAINS

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose 11 percent in June from the prior month, while the number of new homes for sale fell to the lowest level since February 1998. Analysts said the data is further evidence that the housing sector, which led the economy into the current recession, is starting to rebound.

"It's more good news," said Jacob Oubina, currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "So while the data continues to come in better than expected, you're going to see this risk rally continue."

Analysts, however, said the recent surge of optimism may begin to fizzle out as caution sets in ahead of U.S. gross domestic product data on Friday.

"The rally has become a little bit overstretched, not just in equities, but in risk assets in general," said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.

The heavy short dollar positions in the market also suggested that "we could be due for a little bit of a correction given the fact the market is very heavily skewed against the dollar," he said.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed currency speculators nearly doubled their bets against the dollar in the week ended July 21, with the value of dollar net short positions the highest in a year.

The market was also keeping an eye on talks between top U.S. and Chinese officials in Washington on Monday and Tuesday for any comments regarding the dollar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury will sell a record $115 billion this week and the bond and currency markets are keen to see how demand holds up given rising stock markets and a potentially improving economic backdrop.

In other trading, the Canadian dollar jumped as high as C$1.0779 per U.S. dollar, its strongest since October 2008, while the Australian dollar climbed around 1 percent to a high of $0.8259, the highest level since early June. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Key Concepts in Forex

How many units can I trade with $5000 in my forex trading account? The topics below are especially important to understand margin trading in order to answer this question. 

TOPICS

1. Margin
2. Spread
3. Pip Value
4. Usable Margin
5. Possible Scenarios

1. Margin

Margin is the deposited funds held as collateral to cover any potential losses from adverse movements in prices. Margin requirement is set for each account and affects the number of units you can open and sustain. 

Minimum margin requirement offered by MG Financial is 1%. Under the percentage based margin, the required margin for all accounts is a percentage of the numerical value of the Base Currency or the first currency in the pair. For example, 1% of 1 unit USD/JPY is $1,000 (1% x 100,000USD=1,000USD); 1% of 1 unit EUR/USD is $1,439(1% x 100,000EUR x1.4390 = $1,439).* 

For details on margin calculation, please click here. 

In theory, with $5000 account equity in your account to trade EUR/USD, you can trade a maximum of 3.4 units ($5000 / $1439 per unit = 3.4 units).* 

* Calculated at the market rate of 1.4390 at the time of conversion 

In reality, you are not able to trade 3.4 units. There are a few more factors you need to consider... 

2. Spread

The spread of any currency pair is the difference between the Bid and Ask rate of the two currencies in the pair. For example, spread for EUR/USD with current Bid rate of 1.4387 and Ask rate of 1.4390 is 3. When a position enters the market, your position immediately reflects the revaluation of market value. Under flat market conditions, when entering the market your position may see a negative P/L equivalent to the spread of the currency pair you are trading. 

3. Pip Value

The pip value of 1 standard unit (100,000) for either of the currency pairs of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD is $10. 

Calculation of Pip value of pairs with USD based currency or Crosses, such as USD/JPY, USD/CAD, or GBP/JPY is a bit more complicated. The Profit Loss Calculator is a useful tool to calculate profit or loss of a potential trade. 

Pip value can be used to calculate how many pips of movement your usable margin can sustain. For example, if your usable margin is $200 and you have 1 unit EUR/USD, the account can sustain 20 pips of market movement against you. 

4. Usable Margin

The usable margin is the amount remaining to place additional trades or amount to sustain market movement against your position. This value is calculated by taking your Account Equity less the Used Margin. Usable margin in simpler terms is the balance of your account less used margin and +/- Profit/Loss. Please remember that because Usable Margin takes into consideration Profit/Loss, this amount changes with market movement. 

5. Possible Scenarios

Now let's try to answer the question...
Beginning Account Equity of $5000 and 1% Margin requirement** 

** Calculated at the market rate of 1.4390 at the time of conversion 

Scenario 1- Trade 1 unit EUR/USD
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $30 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip) - $1439 (Required margin for 1 unit) = $3531
$3531 (Usable Margin) / $10 (pip value for 1 unit EURUSD) = 353 pips
Your account can therefore sustain 353 pips of movement against you for 1 unit position. 

Scenario 2- Trade 1.5 units EUR/USD 
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $45 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip x 1.5 units) - $2158.5 ($1439 margin per unit x 1.5 units) = $2796.5 
$2796.5 (Usable Margin) / $15 ($10 per pip x 1.5 units) = 186 pips movement 
Your account can therefore sustain 186 pips of movement against you for a 1.5 unit position. 

Scenario 3- Trade 0.1 unit EUR/USD
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $3 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip x 0.1 unit) - $143.9 ($1439 margin per unit x 0.1 units)= $4853.1
$4853.1 (Usable Margin) / $1 ($10 per pip x 0.1 unit) = $4853 pips 
Your account can therefore sustain 4853 pips of movement against you for a 0.1 unit position. 

Scenario 4- Trade 3 units EUR/USD
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $90 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip x 3 units) - $4317 ($1439 margin per unit x 3 units)= $593
$593 (Usable Margin) / $30 ($10 per pip x 3 units) = 19 pips 
Your account can therefore sustain 19 pips of movement against you for a 3 unit position. 

Scenario 5- Trade 0.5 units EUR/USD
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $15 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip x 0.5 units) - $719.5 ($1439 margin per unit x 0.5 units)= $4265.5
$4265.5 (Usable Margin) / $5 ($10 per pip x 0.5 units) = 853 pips 
Your account can therefore sustain 853 pips of movement against you for a 0.5 unit position. 

Client can also require margin greater than 1%, e.g. 2% or 3 %, and here is an example of trading 1 unit of EUR/USD at the market rate of 1.4390, with 2% margin requirement. 

Scenario 6- Trade 1 unit EUR/USD with 2% margin requirement 
Usable Margin= $5000 (Beginning Account Equity) - $30 (3 pip spread x $10 per pip) - $2878(2% x 100,000EUR x1.4390) = $2092
$2092 (Usable Margin) / $10 (pip value for 1 unit EURUSD) = 209 pips
Your account can therefore sustain 209 pips of movement against you for 1 unit position with 2% margin requirement. 


From the various scenarios depicted above, you can see there is no definite answer to this question. This is highly dependent on the investor's appetite for risk. The investor must also take into consideration all relevant factors and make sure to keep enough usable margin in his/her account to sustain market movement. 

How to Get Started

People are introduced to the exciting world of foreign exchange in many ways: friends, current events, newspapers, television, and many others. For those of you who are new to forex, the following guidelines cover the basics of currency trading. 

Step 1: "Practice makes perfect"

The demo account was designed to help traders gain familiarity with the speed and movements of the market. When you are demo trading, you should learn how to: 1) place market orders to enter a trade, 2) place stop-loss orders to protect your positions, and limit orders to take profits, 3) place OCO orders and If Done Orders to execute more advanced strategies. 

Step 2: "Study, Study, Study".

Forex traders use fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative analysis and sometimes a combination of all three to make their trading decisions.Fundamental analysis involves the use of economic, financial and political news to determine trading decisions. Technical analysis involves the study of Charts to predict future price movements based on past price patterns and trends. Quantitative analysis consists of the use of preset statistical models and properties in quantifying price formations such as averages, retracements as well as identifying oversold and undersold situations. 

In order to help novice and experienced traders alike, MG has developed www.forexnews.com, a leading site on foreign exchange analysis, news and education. Comprehensive previews and summaries updated 4 times per day, insightful editorials covering the latest market developments and an open forum for discussing trading tips and ideas, are just some of the many features of Forexnews.com and MG's commitment to educating and informing Forex participants. 

Step 3: Manage your money wisely.

You should always be aware of the amount of money in your account before placing a trade. If you think a long-term trend is developing, then you should consider whether you have enough funds to maintain your margin and withstand any movements against your position(s) that may occur. We encourage everyone who opens an account with us to ask themselves the following questions prior to entering each trade: 

1) How much am I willing to risk?
2) What is my upside and downside potential?
3) What are the market conditions? (Is the market volatile or calm?)
4) What is the logic behind entering this trade?
5) When can I conclude if the assumptions/logic behind the trade are/is correct or wrong? 

Before entering an order, you should consider both your entry and exit points. One of the mistakes most commonly made by traders, especially new traders, is letting emotions get in the way of their strategy. 

Step 4: Stay Connected:

It is impossible to follow the forex market 24 hours day, 7 days a week. For better management of your account, we encourage you to use our Wireless Service and alert!FX™. 

Step 5: Open a Live Account.

If you feel ready to trade this market, fill out our application forms and submit them today. Since the emotional factor may be higher than it was when you were demo-trading (as you are now committing real money), it is essential that you develop an effective strategy while demo-trading and plan to abide by it when trading your live account. 

We hope you enjoy trading with us and wish you the best of luck!

How to Trade Forex

Trading foreign exchange is exciting and potentially very profitable, but there are also significant risk factors. It is crucially important that you fully understand the implications of margin trading and the particular pitfalls and opportunities that foreign exchange trading offers. On these pages, we offer you a brief introduction to the Forex markets as well as their participants and some strategies that you can apply. However, if you are ever in doubt about any aspect of a trade, you can always discuss the matter in-depth with one of our dealers. They are available 24 hours a day on the Saxo Bank online trading system, SaxoTrader.

The benchmark of its service is efficient execution, concise analysis and expertise – all achieved whilst maintaining an attractive and competitive cost structure. Today, Saxo Bank offers one of Europe's premier all-round services for trading in derivative products and foreign exchange. We count amongst our employees numerous dealers and analysts, each of whom has many years experience and a wide and varied knowledge of the markets – gained both in our home countries and in international financial centres. When trading foreign exchange, futures and other derivative products, we offer 24-hour service, extensive daily analysis, individual access to our Research & Analysis department for specific queries, and immediate execution of trades through our international network of banks and brokers. All at a price considerably lower than that which most companies and private investors normally have access to.

The combination of our strong emphasis on customer service, our strategy and trading recommendations, our strategic and individual hedging programmes, along with the availability to our clients of the latest news and information builds a strong case for trading an individual account through Saxo Bank.

Terms of trading are agreed individually depending on the volume of your transactions, but are generally much lower in cost when compared to banks and brokers. Your margin deposit can be cash or government securities, bank guarantees etc. Large corporate or institutional clients may be offered trading facilities on the strength of their balance sheet. The minimum deposit accepted for an individual trading account depends on the account type. Trade confirmations and real-time account overview are built into SaxoTrader, while further account information can be produced in accordance with your specific requirements.

Working with statistics

Trade Balance

The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.

The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.

It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.


Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.

Gross Domestic Product

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity available. Reported quarterly, GDP growth is widely followed as the primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.

GDP represents the total value of a country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and the government.

As GDP reports are often subject to substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility and revisions, it is preferable to follow the indicator on a year-to-year basis. It can be valuable to follow the trend rate of growth in each of the major categories of GDP to determine the strengths and weaknesses in the economy.

A high GDP figure is often associated with the expectations of higher interest rates, which is frequently positive, at least in the short term, for the currency involved, unless expectations of increased inflation pressure is concurrently undermining confidence in the currency.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The monthly reported changes in CPI are widely followed as an inflation indicator.

The CPI is a primary inflation indicator because consumer spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of economic activity. Often, the CPI is followed but excludes the price of food and energy as these items are generally much more volatile than the rest of the CPI and can obscure the more important underlying trend.

Rising consumer price inflation is normally associated with the expectation of higher short term interest rates and may therefore be supportive for a currency in the short term. Nevertheless, a longer term inflation problem will eventually undermine confidence in the currency and weakness will follow.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average level of prices of a fixed basket of goods received in primary markets by producers. The monthly PPI reports are widely followed as an indication of commodity inflation.

The PPI is considered important because it accounts for price changes throughout the manufacturing sector.

The PPI is often followed but excludes the food and energy components as these items are normally much more volatile than the rest of the PPI and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.

Studying the PPI allows consideration of inflationary pressures that may be accumulating or receding, but have not yet filtered through to the finished goods prices.

A rising PPI is normally expected to lead to higher consumer price inflation and thereby to potentially higher short-term interest rates. Higher rates will often have a short term positive impact on a currency, although significant inflationary pressure will often lead to an undermining of the confidence in the currency involved.

Payroll Employment

Payroll employment is a measure of the number of people being paid as employees by non-farm business establishments and units of government. Monthly changes in payroll employment reflect the net number of new jobs created or lost during the month and changes are widely followed as an important indicator of economic activity.


Payroll employment is one of the primary monthly indicators of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses every major sector of the economy. It is also useful to examine trends in job creation in several industry categories because the aggregate data can mask significant deviations in underlying industry trends.

Large increases in payroll employment are seen as signs of strong economic activity that could eventually lead to higher interest rates that are supportive of the currency at least in the short term. If, however, inflationary pressures are seen as building, this may undermine the longer term confidence in the currency.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders are a measure of the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of change of such orders.

Levels of, and changes in, durable goods order are widely followed as an indicator of factory sector momentum.


Durable Goods Orders are a major indicator of manufacturing sector trends because most industrial production is done to order. Often, the indicator is followed but excludes Defence and Transportation orders because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the orders and can obscure the more important underlying trend.

Durable Goods Orders are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Therefore the Durable Goods Orders should be compared to the trend growth rate in PPI to arrive at the real, inflation-adjusted Durable Goods Orders.

Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Retail Sales

Retail Sales are a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of such sales and are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.

Retails Sales are a major indicator of consumer spending because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.

Often, Retail Sales are followed less auto sales because these are generally much more volatile than the rest of the Retail Sales and can therefore obscure the more important underlying trend.

Retail Sales are measured in nominal terms and therefore include the effects of inflation. Rising Retail Sales are often associated with a strong economy and therefore an expectation of higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Housing Starts

Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month and the level of housing starts is widely followed as an indicator of residential construction activity.

The indicator is followed to assess the commitment of builders to new construction activity. High construction activity is usually associated with increased economic activity and confidence, and is therefore considered a harbinger of higher short-term interest rates that can be supportive of the involved currency at least in the short term.

Forex trading examples

Example 1

An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.

The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.

The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.

Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.

Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.

Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.

Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.

As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.

This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.

---

Example 2:

The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).

The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.

Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.

He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.

Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.

The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.

This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx. USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.

---

Example 3

The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:

He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investor sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.

Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.

After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.

Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.

Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.

The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.

Forex Trading Basics

The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The 3.2 trillion USD daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.

There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.

Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.

In the following article, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other Forex traders and get answers to any questions you might have.

Margin Trading

Foreign exchange is normally traded on margin. A relatively small deposit can control much larger positions in the market. For trading the main currencies, Saxo Bank requires a 1% margin deposit. This means that in order to trade one million dollars, you need to place just USD 10,000 by way of security.

In other words, you will have obtained a gearing of up to 100 times. This means that a change of, say 2%, in the underlying value of your trade will result in a 200% profit or loss on your deposit. See below for specific examples. As you can see, this calls for a very disciplined approach to trading as both profit opportunities and potential risks are very large indeed. Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions.

Base Currency and Variable Currency

When you trade, you will always trade a combination of two currencies. For example, you will buy US dollars and sell euro. Or buy euro and sell Japanese yen, or any other combination of dozens of widely traded currencies. But there is always a long (bought) and a short (sold) side to a trade, which means that you are speculating on the prospect of one of the currencies strengthening in relation to the other.

The trade currency is normally, but not always, the currency with the highest value. When trading US dollars against Singapore dollars, the normal way to trade is buying or selling a fixed amount of US dollars, i.e. USD 1,000,000. When closing the position, the opposite trade is done, again USD 1,000,000. The profit or loss will be apparent in the change of the amount of SGD credited and debited for the two transactions. In other words, your profit or loss will be denominated in SGD, which is known as the price currency. As part of our service, Saxo Bank will automatically exchange your profits and losses into your base currency if you require this.

Dealing Spread, but No Commissions

When trading foreign exchange, you are quoted a dealing spread offering you a buying and a selling level for your trade. Once you accept the offered price and receive confirmation from our dealers, the trade is done. There is no need to call an exchange floor. There are no other time-consuming delays. This is possible due to live streaming prices, which are also a great advantage in times of fast-moving markets: You can see where the market is trading and you know whether your orders are filled or not.

The dealing spread is typically 3-5 points in normal market conditions. This means that you can sell US dollars against the euro at 1.7780 and buy at 1.7785. There are no further costs, commissions or exchange fees.

This ensures that you can get in and out of your trades at very low slippage and many traders are therefore active intra-day traders, given that a typical day in USDEUR presents price swings of 150-200 points.

Spot and forward trading

When you trade foreign exchange you are normally quoted a spot price. This means that if you take no further steps, your trade will be settled after two business days. This ensures that your trades are undertaken subject to supervision by regulatory authorities for your own protection and security. If you are a commercial customer, you may need to convert the currencies for international payments. If you are an investor, you will normally want to swap your trade forward to a later date. This can be undertaken on a daily basis or for a longer period at a time. Often investors will swap their trades forward anywhere from a week or two up to several months depending on the time frame of the investment.

Although a forward trade is for a future date, the position can be closed out at any time - the closing part of the position is then swapped forward to the same future value date.

Interest Rate Differentials

Different currencies pay different interest rates. This is one of the main driving forces behind foreign exchange trends. It is inherently attractive to be a buyer of a currency that pays a high interest rate while being short a currency that has a low interest rate.

Although such interest rate differentials may not appear very large, they are of great significance in a highly leveraged position. For example, the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been approximately 5% for several years. In a position that can be supported by a 5% margin deposit, this results in a 100% profit on capital per annum when you buy the US dollar. Of course, an even more important factor normally is the relative value of the currencies, which changed 15% from low to high during 2005 – disregarding the interest rate differential. From a pure interest rate differential viewpoint, you have an advantage of 100% per annum in your favour by being long US dollar and an initial disadvantage of the same size by being short.
Please refer to our page Forex Rates & Conditions for current Spreads, Margins and Conditions!

Such a situation clearly benefits the high interest rate currency and as result, the US dollar was in a strong bull market all through 2005. But it is by no means a certainty that the currency with the higher interest rate will be strongest. If the reason for the high interest rate is runaway inflation, this may undermine confidence in the currency even more than the benefits perceived from the high interest rate.

Stop-loss discipline

As you can see from the description above, there are significant opportunities and risks in foreign exchange markets. Aggressive traders might experience profit/loss swings of 20-30% daily. This calls for strict stop-loss policies in positions that are moving against you.

Fortunately, there are no daily limits on foreign exchange trading and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend. This means that there will nearly always be an opportunity to react to moves in the main currency markets and a low risk of getting caught without the opportunity of getting out. Of course, the market can move very fast and a stop-loss order is by no means a guarantee of getting out at the desired level.

But the main risk is really an event over the weekend, where all markets are closed. This happens from time to time as many important political events, such as G7 meetings, are normally scheduled for weekends.

For speculative trading, we always recommend the placement of protective stop-lossorders. With Saxo Bank Internet Trading you can easily place and change such orders while watching market development graphically on your computer screen.

Introduction to Trading Forex

Foreign Exchange

This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forexonline. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bullmarket to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.

As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.

Overview

Foreign exchange, Forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The Forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Most Forex trading is speculative, with only a low percentage of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.

Unlike trading on the stock market, the Forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the Forex market is a 24-hour market.

Trading Forex

A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the euro/US dollar, or the GB pound/Japanese yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.

The most important Forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.

Forward Outrights

For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF, for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.

Trading on Margin

Trading on margin means that you can buy and sell assets that represent more value than the capital in your account. Forex trading is usually conducted with relatively small margin deposits. This is useful since it permits investors to exploit currency exchange rate fluctuations which tend to be very small. A margin of 1.0% means you can trade up to USD 1,000,000 even though you only have USD 10,000 in your account. A margin of 1% corresponds to a 100:1 leverage (or “gearing”). (Because USD 10,000 is 1% of USD 1,000,000.) Using this much leverage enables you to make profits very quickly, but there is also a greater risk of incurring large losses and even being completely wiped out. Therefore, it is inadvisable to maximise your leveraging as the risks can be very high. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.

Why Trade Forex?

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  24 hour trading

  One of the major advantages of trading Forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
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  Superior liquidity

  The Forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. Theliquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
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  No commissions

  The fact that Forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis.
  Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
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  100:1 Leverage

  Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
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  Profit potential in falling markets

  Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the US dollar gets stronger against the euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy euro back at a lower price. In case that the EURUSD indeed declines, then you can take your profit. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.

Important Forex Trading Terms

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  Spread

  The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at (Bid) and the price you can buy currency at (Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
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  Pips

  A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading Forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.
  
  On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.

Trading Scenario – Trading Rising Prices

If you believe that the euro will strengthen against the dollar you'll want to buy euro now and sell it back later at a higher price.

• You buy euro

We quote EURUSD at Bid 0.9875 and Ask 0.9878, which means that you can sell 1 euro for 0.9875 USD or buy 1 euro for 0.9878 USD. In this example you buy euro 100,000, at the quote price of 0.9878 (ask price) per euro.

• The market moves in your favor

Later the market turns in favour of the euro and theEURUSD is now quoted at Bid 0.9894 and Ask 0.9896.

• Now you sell your euro and get the profit

You sell euro at a Bid price of 0.9894.

• The profit is calculated as follows

Sell price-buy price x size of trade (0.9894 minus 0.9878) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 140 Profit (Note that the profit or loss is always expressed in thesecondary currency)

Trading Scenario – Trading Falling Prices

If, on the other hand, you believe that the euro will weaken against the dollar, you'll want to sell EURUSD.

• You sell euro

We quote EURUSD at a Bid price of 0.9875 and Askprice of 0.9880 and you decide to sell euro 100,000 at aBid price of 0.9875.

• The market moves in your favour

The euro weakens against the dollar and the EURUSDis now quoted at bid 0.9744 and ask 0.9749.

• Now you buy back your euro

You buy EUR at an ask price of 0.9749.

• Your profit/loss is then

Sell price-buy price x size of trade (0.9875 minus 0.9749) multiplied by 100.000 = USD 1260 Profit

Remember that trading EUR 100,000 as we have done in our examples, does not mean that you have to put up euro 100,000 yourself. On a 2% margin means that you have to deposit 2.0% of euro 100,000, which is euro 2,000 on margin as a guarantee for the future performance of your position.